2022-23 Snowfall Predictions

  Fulton:

2022 - 23 Snow Amount:
Likely Range: 130 -160"
My prediction: 150"



Average: 166.2"
Last season: 115.1"

Syracuse:

2022 - 23 Snow Amount:
Likely Range: 100 - 120"
My prediction: 110"



Average: 116.7"
Last season: 76.0"



 

Seasonal outlooks are still quite difficult for everyone in meteorology.
There are so many variables to take into account, especially
during the winter season. Snowfall amounts for the past
few years have come in lower than I have predicted. And it seems
that we have had a trend of lower snowfall amounts recently.

I was looking at the snowfall amounts for Fulton since I
have been keeping track in 1995-96. From that inital year
through 2008-09, Fulton saw a seasonal average of 182.6".
Then from 2009-10 until 2021-22, the average went down
to 148.6". Almost 3 feet less snow in the last 12 or so years.
So the question every year is, will this be the year that we
see a lot of snow and get to average or above average.

Syracuse and Fulton have seen lower than normal
snowfall recently. But Fulton has seen much lower
amounts compared to their averages. And this has been
due mainly to the lack of bigger lake effect snow events.
We have seen cold and the right conditions for lake effect
snow. But for some reason we are not getting the
blockbuster events from years past, at least around the
Fulton and Syracuse areas.

Most of us have heard of the top seasonal driver around
the world. Which is La Nina and El Nino. All these are
is the cooling or warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean
near the Equator. We are going into the 3rd straight
winter with La Nina (cooling) conditions in the eastern
Pacific. Hard to look back and compare other 3 peat
La Nina years, because there hasn't been many.
The strength of the La Nina is moderate, which is
about the same as the last 2 winter seasons.
And these past 2 years we have had below normal
snowfall here in Central NY. But we have had other
moderate La Nina conditions, where we have had
much higher than normal snowfall.

So just with the La Nina alone, it is difficult to tell
how our winter will end up. But I'm going to follow
closely to what the past 2 years have given us.
I think we see snowfall just below normal.
I do think we see more snow than the past
couple of years. For both Fulton and Syracuse,
I'm picking them to get about 3 feet more
snow than they did last winter.

What about our temperatures? Will we see a cold
winter? Usually when we see a strong La Nina,
we tend to have a much colder winter. But La Nina
is moderate right now. Our cold will depend on
different circulations here in the northern hemisphere.
So I do think we will see some cold periods.
But there should be thawing periods throughout
the winter.

Seasonal forecasts are still quite difficult to nail
down as there are so many variables across the
globe that effect our weather. Every year seems to
have different conditions that make predicting the winter
season challenging. By looking at the past data and
conditions that are setting up this fall, I try to give my
best guess on what we can see for this coming season.
Many of these clues from the past do not give us a
perfect comparison for our future weather.
Snow can be a hassle and an inconvience for many of us.
But try to get out and enjoy it. Spring is right around the corner.




Updated: Tuesday November 1, 2022


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