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2014-15 Snowfall Predictions




Fulton:

2014-15 prediction: 235"

Average: 180.4"
Last season: 168.7"




Syracuse:

2014-15 prediction: 172"

Average: 118.2"
Last season: 132.0"



Here is my take on how this coming winter's snowfall
will pan out and the reasoning behind my predictions.

First of all El Nino is suppose to develop within the
next couple of months. There seems to already have
been a bit of an El Nino like affect on the Atlantic ocean
this hurricane season. This has been one of the
quietest tropical storm seasons in the Atlantic
in about 30 years. Usually when we have an El Nino
we tend to see less tropical storm development.

So when thinking about an impending El Nino for
this winter, it seems like we should have normal
to above normal temperatures here in the Northeast
U.S. Also with El Nino years, there tends to be
stronger east coast Nor'Easters. Both the Blizzard
of '66 and the Blizzard of '93 were during an
El Nino season. And overall, most of the time
we see higher than normal seasonal snowfall
during an El Nino winter. So one would
think that we would have normal to slightly above
normal temperatures, with greater snowfall.

But we have something else to consider when making
this winter outlook. We look at the expanding snow
cover over Siberia during the month of October.
When there is more snow cover across Siberia and
Russia, we usually have colder and snowier winters
here in the Northeast U.S.

This October has shown one of the largest areas of
snow cover in Siberia in the past 15 or so years.
With a large snow cover, the Arctic Oscillation (AO)
becomes negative during most of the winter months.
The AO is a change in air pressure over the Arctic.
When we have a Negative Arctic Oscillation (NAO),
then the arctic warms, which then sends colder
air toward us. But the AO is constantly changing.
But once in an NAO, it can be hard to get out of and
we have an extended period of cold and snowy
weather.

Whether we see more affects from El Nino or the
Siberian snow cover, causing a Negative AO, we
are probably looking at a snowier than average
winter. Here in central NY, we also have to deal
with lake effect snow, which will help push our
snow totals up. I do not think it will be as cold as last
winter. But we will have a couple of weeks at
a time with below normal temperatures.

Now these predictions are not and can not be
100% accurate. But this is my best guess
as I see it for the 2014-15 winter. Snowfall for
the winter is expected to be 30 - 60" above
average. If you like the snow, it could be a
great winter for you. If not, we can hope for
an early spring. Now we just wait and see
what happens.



Updated: Saturday October 18, 2014


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