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2013-14 Snowfall Predictions




Fulton:

2013-14 prediction: 230"

Average: 179.6"
Last season: 193.9"




Syracuse:

2013-14 prediction: 160"

Average: 118.0"
Last season: 115.4"



Seasonal snowfall predictions are really just a best guess.
My predictions are based on past weather history
and current weather patterns.

Looking back on last winter, we experienced slighty
greater snowfall than normal in Fulton, and right
around normal snowfall for Syracuse. What set
Fulton ahead of normal, were two 30"+ lake
effect storms. One occured in January and the
other one at the beginning of February.
The amounts received were right around
what I expected for the winter.

This winter seems a bit trickier at forecasting
snow amounts. But I am expecting above
normal snowfall for both Fulton and Syracuse.
Currently there is no El Nino or La Nina in
the Pacific Ocean. The ocean is considered
to be in a neutral state. The temperatures in
the Pacific Ocean have an impact on the
weather circulation across North America.
Hurricanes have also been relatively quiet
in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. I did look
at some years that had quiet hurricanes
seasons. The following winters did
show some below normal snowfall. But
there were a couple of years with above
normal snowfall.

So another determining factor that I looked
at is snow cover across Siberia in October.
There have been some studies that show
increasing snow cover in October over
Siberia, tends to give us stormier winters.
This may be more of a factor for us this
year. And this October, the snow cover
for Siberia seems to compare more
to years that we got higher than normal
snowfall.

The higher Siberian snow cover, tends
to lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation (NAO).
The NAO keeps us cooler and gives us
more snowfall. The Arctic Oscillation is a change
in air pressure over the north pole region. If we
have a negative AO, the arctic warms, which
tends to send arctic air our way. Pretty much
every winter season that we have had well
above normal snowfall, most of the winter had a
negative AO. But the Arctic Oscillation is constantly
changing. And the AO can swing from positive to
negative within a week or two. Computer models
only go out a couple of weeks for the AO, and the
forecasts are not always reliable. Right now we
are under a negative AO.

I'm also thinking that we will continue to see
blocking patterns through the winter, like we
have had all summer and fall. We get a
few weeks of warm and dry weather.
Then we are stuck for 2 - 3 weeks of
cooler and wetter weather. So expect
snowy cool weather for a couple weeks
straight. Then followed up by some warmer
and less snowy weather for a few weaks.
So I think we will have some thaws throughout
the winter to help melt any snow we get during
those stormy periods.

Looking at all of this data, I have predicted a
snowier than normal winter for Fulton and
Syracuse. We all know that a few strong
lake effect storms could push our snow
totals up.

Again these predictions have to be taken with
a grain of salt, as many conditions could
change throughout the winter. This is my
best guess right now.



Updated: Saturday October 19, 2013


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