2011-12 Snowfall Predictions

Fulton:

2011-12 prediction: 170"

Average: 185.1"
Last season: 247.3"



Syracuse:

2011-12 prediction: 115"

Average: 119.1"
Last season: 179.4"



Seasonal snowfall predictions are really just a best guess.
My predictions are based on past weather history.
This winter will be under a La Nina. Which we had last winter.
So why such a low amount predicted compared to last year?
Well looking at past winters when there have been back to
back La Ninas. And the 2nd year had a bit weaker La Nina
like this year. Most of the time the 2nd year had less snow.
Also this hurricane season has been pretty active. When
looking at some other active hurricane seasons, the winter
following was generally less snowy.

But there are so many variables that could change the amount
of snow we will get. Like last season, there were a lot of
Nor'Easters. Nor'Easters are more common under El Nino
conditions, where we tend to have more temperature fluctuations.

As we know here in central NY, it just takes a couple of Lake
Effect storms to quickly add up our snow totals. So take any
winter snowfalls predictions with a grain of salt. Hopefully this
winter we could have a couple of thaws, which we were
desperately lacking last season.


Updated: Sunday October 16, 2011

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